December 30, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
May 31$29,446,822 Vol.--
May 31$29,446,822 Vol.
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June 15$820,143 Vol.--
June 15$820,143 Vol.
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June 30$11,190,699 Vol.34%
June 30$11,190,699 Vol.
34%
July 31$580,648 Vol.--
July 31$580,648 Vol.
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June 7$14,938,447 Vol.--
June 7$14,938,447 Vol.
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December 31$2,569,698 Vol.--
December 31$2,569,698 Vol.
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August 31$689,197 Vol.--
August 31$689,197 Vol.
--
October 31$77,686 Vol.--
October 31$77,686 Vol.
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Create at: Apr 8, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
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Outcome: No
May 31
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