October 3, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
0% chance
$238,567.775 Vol.
Lula da Silva 15%+$4,633 Vol.5%
Lula da Silva 15%+$4,633 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%$2,627 Vol.6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%$2,627 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 5-10%$6,930 Vol.22%
Lula da Silva 5-10%$6,930 Vol.
22%
Lula da Silva <5%$2,938 Vol.36%
Lula da Silva <5%$2,938 Vol.
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+$1,984 Vol.8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+$1,984 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%$2,349 Vol.10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%$2,349 Vol.
10%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%$5,616 Vol.13%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%$5,616 Vol.
13%
Renan Santos Victory$201,799 Vol.7%
Renan Santos Victory$201,799 Vol.
7%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory$1,712 Vol.<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory$1,779 Vol.<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory$1,779 Vol.
<1%
Other$2,258 Vol.8%
Other$2,258 Vol.
8%
Rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Create at: Feb 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
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