Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place | PROBLY Prediction Market
October 3, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
0% chance
$3,643,074.901 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro$57,076 Vol.
62%
Renan Santos$999,917 Vol.
19%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$68,472 Vol.
9%
Fernando Haddad$653,021 Vol.
4%
Camilo Santana$56,760 Vol.
3%
Romeu Zema$257,254 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Caiado$292,369 Vol.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro$73,628 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin$125,037 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina$3,797 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro$77,871 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas$111,715 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior$644,257 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo$29,948 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro$49,529 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho$2,403 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite$41,623 Vol.
<1%
Rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).